The SREC Glut seems to be developing fast. In the most recent auction the prices dropped below the minimum threshholds of so many sellers that my broker is setting up a special mechanism to unload these. Here's part of what they announced:
Due to the price drop in the July auction, a significant number of New Jersey SRECs went unsold. You can read about the recent volatility in the NJ SREC market in our blog. For the past 3 years, prices have held at 95% of the ceiling in the market, so for many of you, this is the first month without a paycheck for your SRECs.
As we explained in the blog, there are reasons why pricing could get better for the 2011 SRECs and reasons why they may not. We suspect that you may be less interested in the complexities of the market than you are in getting your SRECs sold. For this reason, instead of waiting until the next auction, we are offering to take your SRECs to our buyers to see if we can get them sold for you sooner than later. We will use a tiered structure that promotes choice, while allowing us to go to the market with firm numbers.
I suppose that in a way, solar is a victim of it's own success and popularity. Hopefully this won't discourage anybody from going solar in the near future. Come to think of it, maybe I shouldn't post this for that reason, but hey, you all know I'm all about full disclosure!
Tuesday, July 26, 2011
Thursday, June 16, 2011
Amber Waves of Solar Panels? The Turbined Plain?
There was an interesting letter in the Inquirer today, written by Matthew Blake, the Manager of Delaware Bay Program.
Matthew Blake Letter Here!
Although I'm a solar/wind advocate I kinda' see his point here. There are plenty of suitable places for wind and solar facilities to be developed. I'm not in favor of encouraging farmers to plow under their fields and replace them with these contraptions (which, while they might not look as ugly as a conventional power plant or electrical substation, are not as striking as a field of corn, a cranberry bog or a grove of peach trees). Of course, Blake is smarter than me and raises more substantial points than I'm going for, so by all means, read his letter!
"...would undermind the rural character of South Jersey's farm belt and many other communities along the Delaware Bay located within a high wind-generation zone." **
It's an interesting debate, one in which I agree with Blake. We haven't reached a renewable energy gold rush. Why waste the best land for this stuff when it can go anywhere?
** Yeah, I included that quote for you non-Jerseyans who think there's nothing here but the turnpike. And I was one of you before I came here!
Matthew Blake Letter Here!
Although I'm a solar/wind advocate I kinda' see his point here. There are plenty of suitable places for wind and solar facilities to be developed. I'm not in favor of encouraging farmers to plow under their fields and replace them with these contraptions (which, while they might not look as ugly as a conventional power plant or electrical substation, are not as striking as a field of corn, a cranberry bog or a grove of peach trees). Of course, Blake is smarter than me and raises more substantial points than I'm going for, so by all means, read his letter!
"...would undermind the rural character of South Jersey's farm belt and many other communities along the Delaware Bay located within a high wind-generation zone." **
It's an interesting debate, one in which I agree with Blake. We haven't reached a renewable energy gold rush. Why waste the best land for this stuff when it can go anywhere?
** Yeah, I included that quote for you non-Jerseyans who think there's nothing here but the turnpike. And I was one of you before I came here!
Wednesday, June 8, 2011
May: 1 SREC Sold / Wonky Meter?
I'm seeing a pattern here.
For May we sold 1 SREC for $640.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Whenever I pass by the electric meter I glance at it, hoping to see it spinning backwards. For the past few weeks I've noticed many times that it's spinning neither forward nor backward. It's conceivable that at these times, power being generated is equal to power being consumed. It sure seems like I've noticed that a lot recently, though.
It's not every time. Sometimes it is moving in one direction or the other. I'm not sure what to do. I feel like if I call the power company they'll come out, replace it, bill me for past usage ("Aha, no wonder you've had negative electric bills!") I'm kidding, I think...
For May we sold 1 SREC for $640.
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::
Whenever I pass by the electric meter I glance at it, hoping to see it spinning backwards. For the past few weeks I've noticed many times that it's spinning neither forward nor backward. It's conceivable that at these times, power being generated is equal to power being consumed. It sure seems like I've noticed that a lot recently, though.
It's not every time. Sometimes it is moving in one direction or the other. I'm not sure what to do. I feel like if I call the power company they'll come out, replace it, bill me for past usage ("Aha, no wonder you've had negative electric bills!") I'm kidding, I think...
Thursday, June 2, 2011
Negative
Latest electricity bill.
Thank you for participating in Paperless Billing. Your current PSE&G bill statement is now available for online viewing. Your current balance is a credit of $90.55 and no payment is required.
Thank you for participating in Paperless Billing. Your current PSE&G bill statement is now available for online viewing. Your current balance is a credit of $90.55 and no payment is required.
Tuesday, May 24, 2011
More About the SREC Glut
Here's an article that appeared in today's Philadelphia Inquirer that supports the Fletts column I posted a day or two ago. So many systems are going online that the value of the SRECs are plummeting.
[edit: sorry, I can't seem to get blogger to link the article. I'll try again later]
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/20110524_Pennsylvania_s_solar-energy_industry_suffering_from_success.html
"We're in some ways a victim of our own success," said Maureen Mulligan, a spokeswoman for the Pennsylvania Solar Energy Industries Association, which is predicting a crash.
"Anybody who's talking about putting up a new project now is thinking, 'Wow, there's no support anymore,' " said State Rep. Chris Ross (R., Chester County).
On Tuesday, Ross plans to introduce a legislative rescue for the industry that would increase the amount of solar energy that utilities must buy through 2015, propping up the price of solar credits.
We have to remember that forcing the utility companies to by these things is a subsidy. My waffling on whether these subsidies are the right way to proceed is well documented here on the blog so I won't blab about that. The bottom line is, though, that unless the governing authorities ratchet up the number of SRECs that must be purchased, the value of these things will continue to drop.
But doesn't that mean that the subsidies worked? It's hard to feel completely bummed out or elated about this...
[edit: sorry, I can't seem to get blogger to link the article. I'll try again later]
http://www.philly.com/philly/business/20110524_Pennsylvania_s_solar-energy_industry_suffering_from_success.html
"We're in some ways a victim of our own success," said Maureen Mulligan, a spokeswoman for the Pennsylvania Solar Energy Industries Association, which is predicting a crash.
"Anybody who's talking about putting up a new project now is thinking, 'Wow, there's no support anymore,' " said State Rep. Chris Ross (R., Chester County).
On Tuesday, Ross plans to introduce a legislative rescue for the industry that would increase the amount of solar energy that utilities must buy through 2015, propping up the price of solar credits.
We have to remember that forcing the utility companies to by these things is a subsidy. My waffling on whether these subsidies are the right way to proceed is well documented here on the blog so I won't blab about that. The bottom line is, though, that unless the governing authorities ratchet up the number of SRECs that must be purchased, the value of these things will continue to drop.
But doesn't that mean that the subsidies worked? It's hard to feel completely bummed out or elated about this...
Friday, May 20, 2011
SREC Glut Will Mean Lower Prices Fetched
Here's an interesting article posted on Flett Exchange's web page. Looks like New Jersey has taken to solar. The downside is that there are more SRECs being generated than anticipated, making them less valuable.
http://markets.flettexchange.com/2011/05/16/nj-srec-prices-drop-in-anticipation-of-an-oversupply/
"There are two ways to prevent the SREC market from being oversupplied. First is to slow the pace of solar development and second is for New Jersey to increase the amount of solar needed."
Wednesday, May 11, 2011
Roughly Halfway to System Payoff
One SREC sold for April, for $ 640.00.
Then, there's this from PSE&G, the power company:
Thank you for participating in Paperless Billing. Your current PSE&G bill statement is now available for online viewing. Your current balance is a credit of $109.59 and no payment is required.
I'm just doing 'back of the envelope' calculations, but it appears that our system is halfway to paying for itself. (Disclaimer: we were lucky enough to catch the tail end of the New Jersey rebate program and also received a substantial federal tax credit.) When we installed I estimated the payback period as 4.5 years. Looks like it'll be more like 5.1 years. I can live with that...
Then, there's this from PSE&G, the power company:
Thank you for participating in Paperless Billing. Your current PSE&G bill statement is now available for online viewing. Your current balance is a credit of $109.59 and no payment is required.
I'm just doing 'back of the envelope' calculations, but it appears that our system is halfway to paying for itself. (Disclaimer: we were lucky enough to catch the tail end of the New Jersey rebate program and also received a substantial federal tax credit.) When we installed I estimated the payback period as 4.5 years. Looks like it'll be more like 5.1 years. I can live with that...
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